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3 TS same pool, x times

By charlesbee (NC) - 14-05-2022 19:05

[France]

In Summer Cup U23, again ! It is statiscally impossible to be random unbiased. The binomial formula tells that 3 TS in à pool of 10 for 5000 players is: (3,10)*p^3*(1-p)^7 where p=144/5000 This leads to a 1/500 probability of such an insane oddity. The problem is it is not the first time it happens several Times each season. This proves beyond any doubt the pools are not composed randomly, but unfairly for the big teams.In Summer Cup U23, again ! It is statiscally impossible to be random unbiased.

The binomial formula tells that 3 TS in à pool of 10 for 5000 players is:

(3,10)*p^3*(1-p)^7

where p=144/5000

This leads to a 1/500 probability of such an insane oddity. The problem is it is not the first time it happens several Times each season.

This proves beyond any doubt the pools are not composed randomly, but unfairly for the big teams.

 

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Re: 3 TS same pool, x times

By charlesbee (NC) - 14-05-2022 19:09

[France]

And BTW it is also even more unfair for the other teams that are unlucky enough to fall in such pools of absurd strength repartition. They can never qualify. Their odds must be divided like 100 times.And BTW it is also even more unfair for the other teams that are unlucky enough to fall in such pools of absurd strength repartition. They can never qualify. Their odds must be divided like 100 times.

Re: 3 TS same pool, x times

By jere92 - 14-05-2022 22:36

Im not like expert in possibility counting but if we draw 512 pools for U23 Summer Cup shouldn't we land on 1 pool of death if the possibility is 1 out of 500? So what I understand there should be one of these groups in every tournament but you being placed on it has 2% chance.Im not like expert in possibility counting but if we draw 512 pools for U23 Summer Cup shouldn't we land on 1 pool of death if the possibility is 1 out of 500?

So what I understand there should be one of these groups in every tournament but you being placed on it has 2% chance.

Re: 3 TS same pool, x times

By charlesbee (NC) - 14-05-2022 23:17

[France]

You are exactly right. As a TS I have 1/50 odds of being in such a situation. (2,9)*p^2*(1-p)^7 p=144/5000 The point is I am certain that I fall more than once per season in similar situations. That is far more than the 2% in thus précise case. I even remember a recent U21 cup with 3 leaders of TS (Roncourt included). I had to beat the #1 of Brasil in the last game to qualify. (Did not detect the dangerous situation until the last game) [b]And 2 top (#1) TS teams were culled at pool stage ![/b] A leader of d1 (swedish d1) qualified with me. The odds can barely be written here except by using negative power of 10. So if we identify far more than 1 other pool with 3 TS there is something highly suspect. There should 0 1 or 2, in huge majority of such cups if everything is random.

jere92 wrote:

Im not like expert in possibility counting but if we draw 512 pools for U23 Summer Cup shouldn't we land on 1 pool of death if the possibility is 1 out of 500?

So what I understand there should be one of these groups in every tournament but you being placed on it has 2% chance.

You are exactly right. As a TS I have 1/50 odds of being in such a situation.

(2,9)*p^2*(1-p)^7

p=144/5000

The point is I am certain that I fall more than once per season in similar situations.

That is far more than the 2% in thus précise case.

I even remember a recent U21 cup with 3 leaders of TS (Roncourt included). I had to beat the #1 of Brasil in the last game to qualify. (Did not detect the dangerous situation until the last game)

And 2 top (#1) TS teams were culled at pool stage ! A leader of d1 (swedish d1) qualified with me.

The odds can barely be written here except by using negative power of 10.

So if we identify far more than 1 other pool with 3 TS there is something highly suspect. There should 0 1 or 2, in huge majority of such cups if everything is random.

Re: 3 TS same pool, x times

By charlesbee (NC) - 14-05-2022 23:47

[France]

https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx Put 0.002 500 4 in the fields. (This is an valid approximation of the situation) This means that if 5 pools contain 3 TS we are in a very unprobable repartition, (0.3% that 5 or more such pools occur).https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

Put
0.002
500
4

in the fields. (This is an valid approximation of the situation)

This means that if 5 pools contain 3 TS we are in a very unprobable repartition, (0.3% that 5 or more such pools occur).

Re: 3 TS same pool, x times

By douglaskampl - 15-05-2022 17:33

[BRAU18]
President

A couple of seasons ago, one TS team and two from div 1 were drawn alongside each other in the same U18 National Cup group. 691 teams in total, most groups had 5 teams (this group had 5 teams). It's not the same, but let's say we want 3 div 1/TS teams in the same group. p = 48/691 (let's assume all of the div1/TS guys signed up for the National Cup) So, (n, k)*(p^k)*((1-p)^(n-k)) = 5!/(3!2!)*(48/700)^3*(1 - 48/700)^2 = 0,0029 Slightly better than your case, but I was just bored.A couple of seasons ago, one TS team and two from div 1 were drawn alongside each other in the same U18 National Cup group. 691 teams in total, most groups had 5 teams (this group had 5 teams).

It's not the same, but let's say we want 3 div 1/TS teams in the same group.

p = 48/691 (let's assume all of the div1/TS guys signed up for the National Cup)

So, (n, k)*(p^k)*((1-p)^(n-k)) = 5!/(3!2!)*(48/700)^3*(1 - 48/700)^2 = 0,0029

Slightly better than your case, but I was just bored.

Re: 3 TS same pool, x times

By charlesbee (NC) - 15-05-2022 20:16

[France]

Yes of course in 20 years of game you can see everything. My point is it's far more often than it should I am certain. I could check the other TS randomly and see their pools if none replies and sans "same thing here" As I said, if 5 other pools like this exist then something very abnormal happens.

douglaskampl wrote:

A couple of seasons ago, one TS team and two from div 1 were drawn alongside each other in the same U18 National Cup group. 691 teams in total, most groups had 5 teams (this group had 5 teams).

It's not the same, but let's say we want 3 div 1/TS teams in the same group.

p = 48/691 (let's assume all of the div1/TS guys signed up for the National Cup)

So, (n, k)*(p^k)*((1-p)^(n-k)) = 5!/(3!2!)*(48/700)^3*(1 - 48/700)^2 = 0,0029

Slightly better than your case, but I was just bored.

Yes of course in 20 years of game you can see everything.

My point is it's far more often than it should I am certain.

I could check the other TS randomly and see their pools if none replies and sans "same thing here"

As I said, if 5 other pools like this exist then something very abnormal happens.

Re: 3 TS same pool, x times

By charlesbee (NC) - 04-06-2022 02:14

[France]

Again in Summer Cup U23. 5000 participants. 500 groups of 10, 144 TS. So at most 1 in 30 is a TS. So on average one group in 3 only has 1 TS. How comes then you have 3 TS in the same group of 10 if it is random ? Given that I have a TS U23 team. With p=0.033, 9 tries, 2 or more "success" (other Top Series) cumulative probability is: 0.0335956712 = 3.36% This should happen once every 30 cups. This already happened to me in U21 same season. This is more than weird. (Plus they are of top regions like Argentina) IT IS IMPOSSIBLE BECAUSE it was already happened at least once for me the same season in U21. IT IS NOT RANDOM AT ALL. I am more than fed up ! Would you like systematically Real-Liverpool meet and one culled before the 512th of a cup ?Again in Summer Cup U23.

5000 participants. 500 groups of 10, 144 TS.

So at most 1 in 30 is a TS. So on average one group in 3 only has 1 TS.

How comes then you have 3 TS in the same group of 10 if it is random ?

Given that I have a TS U23 team.
With p=0.033, 9 tries, 2 or more "success" (other Top Series) cumulative probability is:
0.0335956712 = 3.36%

This should happen once every 30 cups. This already happened to me in U21 same season. This is more than weird.

(Plus they are of top regions like Argentina)

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE BECAUSE it was already happened at least once for me the same season in U21.

IT IS NOT RANDOM AT ALL. I am more than fed up !

Would you like systematically Real-Liverpool meet and one culled before the 512th of a cup ?

Re: 3 TS same pool, x times

By charlesbee (NC) - 04-06-2022 02:17

[France]

(TS = Top Series, example: Allsvenskan U23)(TS = Top Series, example: Allsvenskan U23)

Re: 3 TS same pool, x times

By charlesbee (NC) - 04-06-2022 02:41

[France]

I would need extra samples from other teams to be certain that I was not simply in a very very unlucky serie. I checked S81 only 6 U23 official cups were played.I would need extra samples from other teams to be certain that I was not simply in a very very unlucky serie.

I checked S81 only 6 U23 official cups were played.

 

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